Theory



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Theory

Cash (ApJ 228, 939) showed that the minimization criterion is a very bad one if any of the observed data bins had few counts. A better criterion is to use a likelihood function :

where are the observed data and the values of the function. Minimizing C for some model gives the best-fit parameters. Furthermore, this statistic can be used in the same, familiar way as the statistic to find confidence intervals. One finds the parameter values that give , where N is the same number that gives the required confidence for the number of interesting parameters as for the case.

A couple of caveats are in order. The C statistic provides an excellent method of finding the best-fit parameters and confidence intervals for a model, but it does not give any measure of how good the fit is (unlike , which does both for satisfactory data). A goodness-of-fit criterion must be derived using simulationsgif. Secondly, the C-statistic assumes that the error on the counts is pure Poisson, and thus it cannot deal with data that already has been background subtracted, or has systematic errors.



Keith Arnaud
Fri Nov 18 16:30:43 EST 1994